KC Fed: Livestock Strength Offsets Continued Weakness Across Crop Sector

Strong cattle markets are masking ongoing financial stress across crop agriculture.

A Scottish Highland Cow standing in front of a fall vista in Vermont.

Greenfield Highland Beef, FarmHER Janet Seward (FarmHER Season 5, Ep. 23)

Photo by Marji Guyler-Alaniz/FarmHER, Inc.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm income conditions remained uneven through 2025 as strong livestock markets supported revenues while crop producers continued facing lower prices and tightening margins, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Fourth Quarter Agricultural Bulletin (PDF Version).

Average agricultural commodity prices finished 2025 about 5 percent below levels at the start of the year despite strong cattle markets. Higher cattle prices alone contributed roughly three percentage points to overall agricultural price support, but declines in corn, milk, broilers, and eggs pulled the broader index lower. Crop revenues declined for a third consecutive year as large production weighed on prices across grains and oilseeds.

The livestock sector provided the primary financial offset. Higher cattle sales and modest gains in hog, turkey, and egg receipts lifted overall farm income nearly 20 percent above 2024 levels. Domestic demand for agricultural products remained solid, although exports softened due largely to weaker soybean shipments.

Credit conditions gradually weakened during the year, but broader financial stress remained limited. Farm debt levels held steady, loan delinquency rates changed little, and farmland values stayed resilient, helping stabilize balance sheets despite weaker profitability for crop producers.

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve analysts indicate that subdued crop profitability could continue to pressure credit conditions if commodity prices fail to recover, even as livestock markets remain comparatively strong.

Related Stories
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
The Dairy Checkoff’s new approach to consumer marketing helps farmers bridge the gap between physical vs. digital touchpoints and deliver more end sales.
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Federal officials are signaling a more aggressive push on beef packer concentration, but any direct market impact will depend on what the investigation actually finds.
The USDA’s annual report leaves dairy producers with a mixed picture. Output and herd size expanded, but weaker prices kept income from rising with production.
Total cash receipts from marketings of cattle, calves, hogs, and pigs climbed by 18% in 2025 to $165 billion.
March crush data showed stronger soybean and canola processing, but softer animal fat production.
The new county maps show farm program payments are widespread, but payment design still produces very different outcomes across regions and crops. AgriSompo’s Brooks York joins us to discuss the role of crop insurance in supporting mental health.
Seasonal pricing strength is lining up with crop stress, giving wheat producers another weather-driven marketing window. Shaun Haney joins us to discuss concerns from ag bankers on farm profitability.