Losing Momentum: Why are wheat prices around four-year lows?

Corn and soybean growers are not the only ones facing lower prices right now; wheat growers are also looking to be in the same boat. An analysis by Reuters shows what might be the cause.

When the war in Ukraine began, the Biden Administration pushed to increase U.S. wheat plantings as a way to lower food inflation; however, grain continued to flow out of Ukraine, and prices are now standing around four-year lows.

The White House plan surrounded double cropping and crop insurance, but wheat prices fell during the planning stages. Farmers were also reluctant to alter crops unless the payout was worth it.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts the U.S. wheat crop to be around 11 percent over last year, which comes out to around 2 billion bushels. According to the USDA’s Outlook Board, that keeps pressure on prices, and they are closely watching supplies leaving the Black Sea region.

“Russia and Ukraine are still exporting a lot, so the Black Sea supplies are relatively abundant, especially for the old crop,” said USDA Economist Mark Jekanowski. “We raised our Russian wheat export forecast for the old crop by 1.5 million tons to a new record of 55.5 million tons. For the new crop year, overall production will be, you know, currently forecast to be up about 7.2 Million tons. So yeah, a lot of competition out there and keeping pressure on price

The next WASDE report is out on August 12, and at that time, we should have a better idea of supplies across the globe. Stay with RFD-TV News and The Market Day Report for updates on this developing situation.

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