NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cotton producers enter the 2026 season facing another year of negative margins, but tightening global supplies could eventually stabilize prices.
Economists at the National Cotton Council say the industry is coming off a fourth consecutive year of unfavorable returns, driven by weak demand and high production costs. The group projects U.S. cotton acreage at 9.0 million acres, down 3.2 percent, and production of roughly 12.7 million bales after abandonment.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Domestic textile use remains weak, with U.S. mills expected to consume 1.55 million bales, slightly below last year. However, exports are projected to rise as global consumption increases to 120 million bales while world production declines to 114.1 million bales. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are forecast to fall to 3.5 million bales, and global stocks outside China are forecast to drop to their lowest level since 2016.
Trade policy and global economic growth remain major uncertainties for the export-dependent cotton sector.
While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
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