Lower Stocks Offer Potential Support for Cotton Prices

Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.

Cotton Plant. Cotton picker working in a large cotton field_Photo by MagioreStockStudio via Adobe Stock.jpg

Photo by MagioreStockStudio via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cotton producers enter the 2026 season facing another year of negative margins, but tightening global supplies could eventually stabilize prices.

Economists at the National Cotton Council say the industry is coming off a fourth consecutive year of unfavorable returns, driven by weak demand and high production costs. The group projects U.S. cotton acreage at 9.0 million acres, down 3.2 percent, and production of roughly 12.7 million bales after abandonment.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Domestic textile use remains weak, with U.S. mills expected to consume 1.55 million bales, slightly below last year. However, exports are projected to rise as global consumption increases to 120 million bales while world production declines to 114.1 million bales. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are forecast to fall to 3.5 million bales, and global stocks outside China are forecast to drop to their lowest level since 2016.

Trade policy and global economic growth remain major uncertainties for the export-dependent cotton sector.

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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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