Lower Stocks Offer Potential Support for Cotton Prices

Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.

Cotton Plant. Cotton picker working in a large cotton field_Photo by MagioreStockStudio via Adobe Stock.jpg

Photo by MagioreStockStudio via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cotton producers enter the 2026 season facing another year of negative margins, but tightening global supplies could eventually stabilize prices.

Economists at the National Cotton Council say the industry is coming off a fourth consecutive year of unfavorable returns, driven by weak demand and high production costs. The group projects U.S. cotton acreage at 9.0 million acres, down 3.2 percent, and production of roughly 12.7 million bales after abandonment.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Domestic textile use remains weak, with U.S. mills expected to consume 1.55 million bales, slightly below last year. However, exports are projected to rise as global consumption increases to 120 million bales while world production declines to 114.1 million bales. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are forecast to fall to 3.5 million bales, and global stocks outside China are forecast to drop to their lowest level since 2016.

Trade policy and global economic growth remain major uncertainties for the export-dependent cotton sector.

Related Stories
Co-Bank Lead Dairy Economist, Corey Geiger, joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report for a further look at the drop in replacement heifers and the trend’s longterm impact on dairy producers and cattle prices.
The amendments affect BLM lands in several Western states. Comments on the Sage grouse proposals can be made to the BLM National NEPA Register until Oct. 3.
Mike Formica with the National Pork Producers Council joined us on Market Day Report with his reaction to the EPA’s rollback of a Biden-era wastewater discharge mitigation plan.
Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.
This special program, presented in partnership with Nationwide Agribusiness, premieres on Monday, Sept. 1, at 6 PM ET, only on RFD-TV and RFD-TV Now.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
Border closures tied to the threat of New World Screwworm continue to stall Mexican fed cattle imports, tightening U.S. feeder cattle supplies over time — triggering feedlot closures that hinder herd rebuilding efforts, threaten the beef supply chain, and shrink production while consumer prices stay elevated.
Agriculture avoided major disruptions, but trade uncertainty remains elevated.
The debate now matters as much as the policy — market rules and regulatory clarity depend on whether Congress can finish the bill this year.
Domestic beef demand remains solid, with the strongest growth occurring through retail channels, according to consumers surveyed in the latest K-State Meat Demand Monitor.
Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.