NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cattle markets are setting up for a significant supply squeeze in late spring and early summer 2026 as sharply lower feedlot placements in December 2025 work their way through the system. According to analysis from Hyrum Egbert, Author of The Big Bad Beef Packer newsletter on LinkedIn, the decline points directly to tighter fed-cattle availability during a period when packer demand is typically strongest.
December placements fell to just 89 percent of year-ago levels nationwide, with the deepest cuts concentrated in core feeding states. Texas placements were at roughly 83 percent of last year, Kansas at nearly 80 percent, and Colorado at about 78 percent. Those cattle would normally be harvested about 150 to 160 days later, creating what Egbert describes as a “supply air pocket” centered on May and June.
That timing matters. Late spring and early summer are historically peak demand periods for beef, and packers rely on steady throughput to control costs. With fewer cattle in the pipeline, plant utilization rates are likely to remain under pressure, even after recent capacity reductions.
Egbert notes the issue is structural rather than temporary. Lower placements today mathematically guarantee tighter supplies tomorrow, regardless of demand conditions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Missouri Cattle RanchHER Alda Owen joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to talk about the all-new episode of FarmHER + RanchHER, which premieres on Thursday, Sept. 19!
September 15, 2025 01:26 PM
·
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
September 15, 2025 12:57 PM
·
September 15, 2025 12:09 PM
U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
September 12, 2025 11:18 AM
·
“A lot of natural instincts involved in this format.”
September 12, 2025 10:25 AM
·
The Interior Department is proposing to repeal the Bureau of Land Management’s Public Lands Rule. This move would make huge strides to empower local decision-making and restore balance between conservation and protecting rural livelihoods tied to these public lands.
September 10, 2025 02:45 PM
·
Mother-daughter RanchHER duo, Lyn and Sherrie Ray, joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a sneak peek at tonight’s brand new episode of FarmHER + RanchHER.
September 10, 2025 01:45 PM
·
The 2022 Census of Agriculture revealed a more than 30% decrease in U.S. dairy farms since 2017. The shrinking industry is now uniting to advocate for itself while also adopting technology to reduce operational strain.
September 10, 2025 12:55 PM
·
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) was once again on the national stage, front and center this week before the House Agriculture Committee.
September 10, 2025 11:10 AM
·
