NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — New details are emerging this morning on USDA “flash” sales, with additional purchases reported to unknown buyers this week. One of the latest corn sales is drawing attention from market analysts, who say it adds to an already positive export picture.
Rich Nelson, lead strategist at Allendale, Inc., told RFD NEWS that the size of the sale is significant, regardless of the final destination.
“Not something we can really ignore. 310,000 tons overall to that unknown buyer — [it] could be Mexico, could be South Korea, could be Japan,” Nelson said. “Overall, though, it does still continue what has been a positive corn export story. Keep in mind, U.S. export bids more or less are at parity right now with Brazil.”
January is also a busy month for USDA data releases, and Allendale’s team is closely watching upcoming livestock reports. The strategist said their focus for the next Cattle on Feed report will differ from past reports.
“Our focus for this next Cattle and Feed report will actually not be with the general feedlot inflows or outflows,” Nelson said. “Keep in mind, every three months, they give us estimates on steers and heifers in the feedlot. So it gives us kind of an advanced view on maybe if we’re an expansion or contraction. So between next Friday’s Cattle and Feed report and the next Cattle report after that, we’ll get a very clear focus on whether this discussion about expansion has started or not in the industry here.”
The beef industry is also facing increased scrutiny from the White House. In recent months, President Trump directed the Department of Justice to investigate the “Big Four” meatpackers over antitrust concerns. However, one longtime food industry executive warns that efforts to dismantle large packers could have unintended consequences for both producers and consumers.
Hyrum Egbert, who spent a decade representing the meat industry at JBS before moving on to other ventures, says forcing plants to split or downsize would increase per-animal costs. While additional packers could increase competition, Egbert warns it could also lead to plant failures, wider basis swings, and higher beef prices at the grocery store. He argues that scale — not consolidation — is what underpins the modern beef system.
The January Cattle on Feed report is scheduled for release on Friday, January 23. A few days later, USDA will release the January Cattle Inventory Report, one of two inventory reports published each year, set for January 30 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
