NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean futures are on the rebound as Trump pulls back tariff threat. Markets are seeing a bounce this morning after President Trump stepped back from proposed tariffs on several European nations.
The move follows discussions tied to Greenland, which the president has described as a national security priority. Tariffs of up to 10 percent had been under consideration for countries including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. The White House says talks with NATO officials have been productive, easing concerns that had pressured futures earlier this week.
SCOTUS Watch Continues: Tariff Ruling Stalls as Trade Fight Unfolds in Davos
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is in session this week but has not yet issued any rulings related to trade or tariffs. Ag analysts say a decision against the White House could reshape global manufacturing and trade dynamics, potentially giving China a competitive edge.
“That would allow China to fully pick the winners and losers in the world on manufacturing and on defense weapons,” says Arlan Suderman at Stone-X. “And in fact, the White House issued summarizing results of a study detailing how dependent we are for not only manufacturing and consumer goods — from cell phones to pickup trucks — but to defense weapons, and how critically short we are of the rare earth minerals for defense weapons, to being a national security issue.”
Justices are expected to break after Friday, and while opinions can be released during recess, court watchers say that is unlikely.
Funding Deadline Puts Farm Priorities Back in Focus
Lawmakers face a looming deadline as a stopgap spending bill expires next week. Farm groups warn producers remain under severe financial strain, with low commodity prices and high input costs pushing losses toward historic levels. In related news, new analysis from the American Farm Bureau (AFBF) shows farm losses continue despite federal aid. USDA projections indicate per-acre costs for all major row crops are expected to rise again this year, keeping many operations below breakeven. Economists say accumulated losses now exceed $50 billion nationwide, creating uncertainty heading into planting season — and global supplies remain the big issue to watch in the ag market for 2026.
“Farmers are facing extreme economic pressure right now,” said AFBF Director of Government Affairs Brian Glenn. “They’re dealing with low commodity prices, elevated input costs, and ongoing market uncertainty, and this sustained pressure has led to losses approaching $100 billion nationwide, across the farm economy. As lawmakers consider the government funding package by month’s end, it is critically important that they continue to hear from farmers across the country about these priority issues, the need for economic assistance, and year-round E15.”
AFBF is urging Congress to address economic assistance and year-round E15 sales, which USDA says must be written into law. However, recent spending proposals omit that language, and new Capitol Hill reports on Wednesday cast doubt on the legislation’s future. Lewis Williamson at HTS Commodities told RFD NEWS this week that it is an area of the farm economy needing clarity.
“I’m not finding the clarity that I’m looking for as far as that is concerned,” Williamson says. “And it’s going to be interesting to see what the administration comes out with. I do think that the administration has other things on their mind that take higher priority for them. That has certainly been the case here.”
Biofuels are also drawing attention, with Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley calling on the EPA to move forward on new renewable volume guidance.
Outlook Continues to Shift for U.S. Crop Growers
As 2026 pushes on, market analysts are trying to paint a picture of what the year will hold. At Terrain Ag, economists say it is not just corn and soybean prices feeling the pressure right now.
“Wheat’s in that same bus, too, in terms of being difficult on prices. So, from a farm economy standpoint, we’re starting pretty tough, and you see it when you’re out driving around some of the grain areas. You just kind of hear it when I’m talking with our customers or the customers of Farm Credit. And you see it through some of the telling data, such as tractor sales or combine sales being very, very low — historically low, actually. As a result, I would say we’re starting off 2026 pretty tough.”
Economists at the University of Illinois are also keeping a close watch on the farm economy. They say the latest WASDE report caught them off guard and warns that global supplies are the big issue for the year ahead.
“I think the impact is pretty significant,” says Joe Janzen. I think this, in a sense, perhaps puts a ceiling on any potential price rally we might have seen now. To generate such a rally, we’d probably need some production issues in South America, because that’s sort of the big outstanding wildcard in the next couple of months. But this, again, puts a damper on all of that, just because of the well-supplied nature of the global marketplace today.”
Traders are also watching South America right now. Brian Hoops tells us that weather concerns have supported U.S. grains in recent days.
“It’s a little bit too wet in parts of Brazil,” explains Brian Hoops. “They’re trying to start harvesting. In fact, they’ve done some harvesting in Mato Grosso, but it’s wet there. It’s going to delay their harvest. And in southern Brazil and into Argentina, it’s dry weather once again. They had some rain a week ago, but then the forecasts were for drier weather. That’s where we’re at right now. They’ve had rains, but now we’re into that drier pattern once again.”
Hoops says any weather delays there in South America could hurt their yields. But he notes their crop will likely be large enough to absorb any hiccups along the way.
