NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are improving in early 2026, but growing supplies and shifting product markets are setting the stage for increased volatility in the months ahead.
Analysis from Terrain economist Ben Laine shows Class III milk prices are expected to average $17 per hundredweight in the second quarter, while Class IV is projected near $19.50. That outlook reflects stronger-than-expected price movement early in the year, despite a global oversupply of milk entering 2026.
Production remains a key pressure point. U.S. milk output rose 2.8 percent in 2025, with continued growth into early 2026 supported by a larger herd and higher yields. January production was up 3.4 percent year over year, and reports of milk dumping in California highlight capacity constraints in some regions.
Recent price strength has been driven by gains in whey and nonfat dry milk, tied to strong global protein demand. At the same time, exports remain critical, with U.S. dairy shipments valued at $9.51 billion in 2025, helping balance growing supplies.
With supply expanding and product markets shifting, price swings are expected to remain elevated through the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Manage risk as milk price volatility increases.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Mike Spier, president and CEO of U.S. Wheat Associates, discusses the new U.S.-Bangladesh trade agreement and its potential benefits for U.S. wheat growers.
February 11, 2026 12:37 PM
·
Gretchen Kuck of the National Corn Growers Association joined us to discuss the Ag Coalition for USMCA’s report findings and expectations ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
February 11, 2026 12:17 PM
·
Strong corn exports offer support, while soybeans and wheat remain weighed down by ample global supplies, according to the USDA’s latest WASDE report for February.
February 10, 2026 04:25 PM
·
Higher livestock prices reflect resilient demand, even as disease and herd shifts reshape 2026 supply expectations.
February 10, 2026 04:11 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Sean Haney outlines the Trump Administration’s current trade priorities and what meaningful market expansion looks like for farmers.
February 10, 2026 03:08 PM
·
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.
February 10, 2026 01:11 PM
·
