NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are improving in early 2026, but growing supplies and shifting product markets are setting the stage for increased volatility in the months ahead.
Analysis from Terrain economist Ben Laine shows Class III milk prices are expected to average $17 per hundredweight in the second quarter, while Class IV is projected near $19.50. That outlook reflects stronger-than-expected price movement early in the year, despite a global oversupply of milk entering 2026.
Production remains a key pressure point. U.S. milk output rose 2.8 percent in 2025, with continued growth into early 2026 supported by a larger herd and higher yields. January production was up 3.4 percent year over year, and reports of milk dumping in California highlight capacity constraints in some regions.
Recent price strength has been driven by gains in whey and nonfat dry milk, tied to strong global protein demand. At the same time, exports remain critical, with U.S. dairy shipments valued at $9.51 billion in 2025, helping balance growing supplies.
With supply expanding and product markets shifting, price swings are expected to remain elevated through the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Manage risk as milk price volatility increases.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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