NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are improving in early 2026, but growing supplies and shifting product markets are setting the stage for increased volatility in the months ahead.
Analysis from Terrain economist Ben Laine shows Class III milk prices are expected to average $17 per hundredweight in the second quarter, while Class IV is projected near $19.50. That outlook reflects stronger-than-expected price movement early in the year, despite a global oversupply of milk entering 2026.
Production remains a key pressure point. U.S. milk output rose 2.8 percent in 2025, with continued growth into early 2026 supported by a larger herd and higher yields. January production was up 3.4 percent year over year, and reports of milk dumping in California highlight capacity constraints in some regions.
Recent price strength has been driven by gains in whey and nonfat dry milk, tied to strong global protein demand. At the same time, exports remain critical, with U.S. dairy shipments valued at $9.51 billion in 2025, helping balance growing supplies.
With supply expanding and product markets shifting, price swings are expected to remain elevated through the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Manage risk as milk price volatility increases.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Tara Vander Dussen, fifth-generation dairy farmer, environmental scientist, and co-host of Discover Ag, joined RFD-TV to talk about her work in agriculture and her passion for sharing the story of dairy.
October 29, 2025 03:33 PM
·
Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
October 29, 2025 03:11 PM
·
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
·
While there has been an increase in outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) this migration season, the CDC says the public health risk is low.
October 29, 2025 01:21 PM
·
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
