LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Profitable milk and cheaper feed in 2024 set the stage for a supply surge that’s now weighing on prices — and rippling into the beef complex. U.S. dairy cow numbers climbed to 9.52 million in August, the highest since 1993, with Texas at 699,000 head — the most since 1958. With more cows on line, processors are expanding capacity alongside them.
Output per cow is also up. August production reached 2,050 pounds per head — a record for the month and 1.3 percent above August 2024 — pushing three-month milk production 3.6 percent higher year over year. As product piles up, pricing has slipped: 40-lb cheddar blocks have ranged from $1.95 to $1.70 per pound and sit roughly 30 cents below last year; butter fell from $2.50 to about $1.70 by mid-October; and NFDM is near $1.14 — it’s low for 2025.
Those declines are flowing back to mailbox checks while cull dynamics tighten the beef pipeline. Beef cow slaughter remains lower, but dairy culling has matched last year since mid-year and could increase as margins narrow and cull values stay strong — absent any government buyout, the market will do the rationing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Dairy farmer and Discover Ag co-host Tara Vander Dussen joined us to discuss the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, her experience at the signing, and what’s next for her family and farm.
January 21, 2026 12:42 PM
·
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
January 21, 2026 11:50 AM
·
From meatpacking settlements to landmark NEPA rulings, Roger McEowen outlines the top legal developments in 2025 that will shape agriculture in the years ahead.
January 20, 2026 03:39 PM
·
Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation joined us to review new policies and regulations supporting the dairy industry and what they mean for the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 03:25 PM
·
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
January 20, 2026 02:47 PM
·
Protein-driven dairy growth is boosting beef supply potential, creating an opening to support rural jobs and ground beef availability.
January 19, 2026 01:00 PM
·
U.S. agriculture entered the week with mixed signals as weather, logistics, and markets shaped early-year decisions. Here is a regional breakdown of domestic crop and livestock production for the week of Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.
January 19, 2026 11:40 AM
·
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
January 18, 2026 07:00 AM
·
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
·
