NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — New analysis from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve suggests tariffs are not the main reason goods prices remain elevated, raising broader concerns for input costs across agriculture and rural economies.
Economists found core goods inflation continues to run above historical averages, but price increases do not align with where tariffs should have the biggest impact. Some goods with high tariff exposure have seen limited inflation, while others with low tariffs have posted stronger price gains.
The report estimates tariffs are contributing only about 0.5 percentage points to overall inflation, meaning other factors — including supply chain shifts, demand changes, and pricing behavior — are playing a larger role. Inflation in goods remains elevated at roughly 1.9% year-over-year, well above pre-pandemic norms.
For agriculture, that disconnect matters. Equipment, inputs, and consumer goods tied to farm operations may continue rising in cost even if tariff pressures ease, complicating budgeting decisions.
The findings also suggest that some price increases may still be working their way through the system, especially as inventories turn and contracts reset.
