NCGA Chief Economist Breaks Down Key Forces Driving Corn Prices and Farm Margins

National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.

CHESTERFIELD, Mo. (RFD NEWS) Record-high corn supplies are adding new pressure to farmers as the industry heads into another year of tight margins. With expanding production, lingering input cost concerns, and uncertainty surrounding policy and trade, corn growers are closely watching the forces expected to shape prices and profitability in the months ahead.

National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) Chief Economist Krista Swanson joined us to break down the economic outlook for corn producers and the key factors influencing the market.

In her interview with RFD NEWS, Swanson highlighted planted acres and a growing supply as primary drivers weighing on corn prices, explaining how acreage decisions and strong production continue to build stocks. She also addressed fertilizer markets, noting how last year’s geopolitical volatility still factors into cost expectations as producers prepare for the 2026 growing season.

Swanson discussed the financial outlook for corn farmers facing the combination of high input costs and lower commodity prices, offering insight into how those pressures are shaping planting decisions and risk management strategies. She also weighed in on interest rates, explaining how potential moves by the Federal Open Market Committee could influence borrowing costs and on-farm investment decisions.

Trade was another major focus of the conversation, with Swanson emphasizing the importance of the upcoming U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review and its potential impact on U.S. corn exports. She also pointed to ethanol as a critical demand driver, outlining how expanded ethanol use could play a significant role in alleviating excess corn supplies in both the short and long term.

Related Stories
Late harvest and tight supplies shape crop progress and agribusiness this week. Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Dec. 1, 2025.
Cargill’s commitment to keep plants open helps preserve competition as Tyson removes capacity amid historically tight cattle supplies.
Tryston Beyrer, Crop Nutrition Lead at The Mosaic Company, examines planning trends as producers weigh corn and soybean plantings for 2026.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joins us to offer an update on what agents are prioritizing as the calendar year winds down.
The newly elected Executive Vice President of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association (TCA), Dale Parker, joins us on-set to share his vision for his state’s cattle industry.
National FFA President Trey Myers joins Monday’s FFA Today to share his hopes and goals for the 2025-2026 year as he steps into this opportunity to lead and serve the next generation of agriculture.
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.
SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.
Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.

Marion is a digital content manager for RFD-TV and The Cowboy Channel. She started working for Rural Media Group in May 2022, adding a decade of experience in the digital side of broadcast media and some cooking experience to the team.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Reed Marcum started hosting a toy drive in 2015. Since then, he has distributed thousands of toys across his home state of Oklahoma and in Texas and Arkansas. Now serving in the Army, Reed’s family and local 4-H chapter are running the event.
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Tax Expert Roger McEowen explains the basics of Low-Risk Credit in Farming, and how an understanding of the farm credit landscape lets producers tactfully approach debt.
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.
Renewable Fuels Association President & CEO Geoff Cooper explains their call for reciprocal duties on Chinese ag imports after China failed to meet past promises on ethanol production.
American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
The FAO Food Price Index for November fell by more than 1 percent in November, marking the third straight month of declines.