FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA (RFD News) — A new analysis from North Dakota State University is modeling how fertilizer prices could respond to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The study outlines three possible scenarios, including a quick reopening of shipping routes, continued contested transit, and an extended disruption through the fall.
Under the central scenario, urea prices could peak near $784 per ton by mid-2026, while DAP could rise above $860 later in the year.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, the analysis projects prices would remain above pre-crisis levels through at least 2027.
The report also notes differences between crop prices and input costs that could impact overall affordability for farmers.
Related Stories
House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
Alissa White with American Farmland Trust joined us to provide insight into climate resilience efforts and strategies to help farmers manage weather-related risks.
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold joined us to share practical health and safety guidance for managing respiratory and skin health during the winter season.
Roger McEowen with the Washburn University School of Law joined us to provide legal analysis on key cases shaping the agricultural landscape heading into the year ahead.
