LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Oil and gas companies are planning for a period of modest prices and elevated uncertainty, a combination that could influence fuel costs, rural economies, and agricultural input expenses through 2026. The latest Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey shows executives budgeting conservatively as activity remains soft and outlooks stay cautious.
Survey respondents expect West Texas Intermediate crude oil to average about $62 per barrel by the end of 2026, with longer-term expectations rising to $69 in 2 years and $75 in 5 years. Natural gas prices are forecast near $4.19 per MMBtu at year-end 2026. Those levels suggest limited near-term price upside, reinforcing disciplined capital spending plans across the energy sector.
Operational challenges remain. Business activity stayed negative late in 2025, while uncertainty remained elevated. Production was largely flat, and oilfield service firms reported compressed margins, weaker equipment utilization, and lower prices for services. Employment also softened, with fewer hours worked and slower wage growth.
For agriculture, the outlook is mixed. Stable oil prices could help limit diesel, freight, and irrigation costs, while natural gas pricing will continue to influence fertilizer and energy expenses. At the same time, restrained drilling activity may reduce economic support in energy-dependent rural regions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
At the White House’s “Celebration of Agriculture,” the Trump Administration announced a slate of policies to support farmers and ranchers, including biofuel mandates, SBA loan programs, and new labeling policies to boost domestic markets for ag products.
March 30, 2026 01:01 PM
·
This week on Champions of Rural America, Congressman Nick Begich discusses the lease sale, its economic impact, and what it could mean for future energy production in Alaska.
March 27, 2026 04:32 PM
·
SoilView’s Chris Nelson explains why soil testing is essential, how it enhances nutrient management, and why growers should focus on data-driven strategies to guide planting and fertilization this year.
March 27, 2026 04:16 PM
·
Corn Refiners Association VP Kristy Goodfellow offered insight into the Feeding the Economy Report’s key findings, showing the breadth of agriculture’s economic impact and the challenges ahead.
March 27, 2026 03:32 PM
·
National Association of Wheat Growers President Jamie Kress discusses how rising fertilizer prices pressure wheat producers and the Administration’s consideration of lowering duties on Moroccan phosphate.
March 27, 2026 02:32 PM
·
EPA estimates the rule could generate more than $10 billion for rural economies and support over 100,000 jobs across agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
March 27, 2026 01:06 PM
·
