NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Beef packer margins entering the first quarter of 2026 are being shaped less by demand and more by cattle availability, creating a volatile setup for both processors and producers. With fed cattle supplies projected to be 6–7 percent below year-ago levels, the central challenge is throughput—not selling beef, but finding enough cattle to keep supply chains running efficiently.
Tight supplies limit packers’ options. Paying up for cattle compresses the box–cash spread, while slowing chain speeds raises per-head costs as fixed expenses are spread over fewer animals. That dynamic makes margins choppy rather than trend-driven. Boxed beef values can rally on tight product availability, but cash cattle often move faster when procurement pressure builds.
Trimmings and ground beef remain a stabilizing force, helping support the composite cutout even when middle meats soften seasonally. At the same time, recent plant closures and shift reductions are “right-sizing” capacity — improving utilization for some plants while intensifying regional competition for cattle.
The result is a Q1 market defined by sharp swings, not steady trends, with leverage increasingly tied to cattle supply rather than demand headlines.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight fed supplies shift margin risk to packers, strengthening cattle price leverage but increasing volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
RanchHer celebrated the invaluable contributions women leading the beef industry at their panel, “Your Path to Becoming a RanchHer,” Friday at NCBA CattleCon.
February 02, 2024 03:31 PM
·
“Where The Food Comes From” visits M&B Products, a milk bottling plant in Temple Terrace, FL (a suburb of Tampa) with its farm in Lecanto, operated by the McClellan family. Get ready for a lesson in everything from milk bottling, to dairy nutrition, and bovine reproduction!
January 25, 2024 03:00 PM
Would you believe it’s possible to have a dairy barn where all you smell is clean fresh country air? Leon McLellan of M&B Products in Temple Terrace, FL shows us how!
January 24, 2024 03:00 PM
If chocolate milke doesn’t come from brown cows (and strawberry milk certainly doesn’t come from pink ones), then where does it come from? Get the scoop!
January 24, 2024 10:00 AM
At Florida dairy operation M&B Products, we learn about bottling milk, lactose intolerance, and so much more!
January 23, 2024 03:57 PM
December 14, 2023 05:22 PM
·
November 10, 2023 02:32 PM
The FAO Food Price Index for October 2023 is out. Where do global food prices stand, and which categories saw the largest gains?
November 03, 2023 01:42 PM
·
Falling feed costs and strong demand for butter could be good news for dairy farmers looking to get their finances back on track.
November 03, 2023 12:38 PM
·
