NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
March 21, 2025 10:40 AM
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In a call with reporters on Tuesday, RFD-TV News reporter Lily Raby asked Senate Ag Committee member Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) for his opinion on Des Moines school leaders’ decisions to halt ag education programs, which also threatens the future of the city’s FFA chapter.
March 18, 2025 11:40 AM
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March 18, 2025 10:49 AM
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In his latest Firm to Farm blog post, Roger McEowen discusses the new EPA/COE clarifications concerning WOTUS. The new measures have important implications for farmers, ranchers, and rural landowners.
March 17, 2025 01:02 PM
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Trinity Barth and Liliann Tjaden-Duff joined us on Market Day Report to express their concerns about the future of the program that has, for 50 years, given students of all backgrounds a path to agriculture careers.
March 14, 2025 01:14 PM
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Agricultural irrigation return flow exemption and “Maui factors” are the topics of today’s Firm to Farm blog post by RFD-TV ag tax and legal expert Roger McEowen with Kansas’ Washburn School of Law.
March 14, 2025 12:46 PM
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