NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
According to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, the top three soy-crushing companies in Bangladesh agreed to buy $1 billion worth of U.S. soybeans over the next year.
November 04, 2025 11:17 AM
·
RFD-TV’s farm legal expert, Roger McEowen, digs into the details of both the LRP and the LGM programs, two essential risk management tools for cattle producers.
November 04, 2025 10:34 AM
·
USDA will meet part of November SNAP benefits under court direction, citing insufficient funds for full payments.
November 04, 2025 10:20 AM
·
Laramie Sandquist discusses Nationwide Agribusiness’s commitment to grain bin safety initiatives, including providing life-saving equipment and training to fire departments across the country.
November 03, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Brooks York with Agri-Sompo discusses how this year’s pricing period played out and what it could mean for farmers heading into the end of the season.
November 03, 2025 12:54 PM
·
China’s crusher losses and Brazil tensions, Gale warns, could reopen critical soybean trade channels for U.S. producers.
November 03, 2025 11:13 AM
·
Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
November 03, 2025 10:20 AM
·
The WASDE/Crop Production combo will be the first full read on supply, demand, and yield that could move basis and hedging plans since the government shutdown more than a month ago.
November 03, 2025 09:34 AM
·
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
November 02, 2025 05:06 AM
·
