NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
Iowa farmer Derek Hommer joined us to discuss grain bin safety, ongoing prevention efforts, and the importance of community preparedness during Nationwide’s Grain Bin Safety Week.
February 20, 2026 01:21 PM
·
Tommy Roach with Nachurs Alpine Solutions discuss fertilizer decision-making, plant fertility strategies, and what farmers can learn at Commodity Classic.
February 20, 2026 12:05 PM
·
New details on the massive wildfire threatening farms and ranches in the Southern Plains.
February 20, 2026 11:24 AM
·
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Friday that imposing duties without Congressional authorization exceeds presidential powers. RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss the potential trade and agriculture implications of the recent ruling.
February 20, 2026 10:09 AM
·
Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.
February 20, 2026 09:00 AM
·
Pollination costs remain volatile, raising planning risk for specialty crop producers.
February 20, 2026 07:00 AM
·
