NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
September 30, 2024 11:35 AM
In today’s Firm to Farm blog post, RFD-TV ag law expert Roger McEowen briefly examines several of the issues that farmers and ranchers face.
August 08, 2024 12:24 PM
·
A five-year-old in Etheridge, Tennessee, lost his life in a grain auger. His mother shares her story to ensure that other farm families do not have to endure that pain. RFD-TV’s own Tammi Arender reports.
RFD-TV Agricultural Law & Taxation expert Roger McEowen discusses the Supreme Court’s recent repeal of the Chevron agreement and other current topics in ag law.
With ransomware and other cybersecurity threats on the rise, the U.S. Small Business Association wants to help bolster the resources available to farmers and other rural Americans who operate small businesses.
The new approach to animal identification in the cattle industry—that’s the topic of this Firm to Farm blog post by RFD-TV agri-legal expert Roger McEowen with the Washburn School of Law.
Poison Hemlock is an invasive weed in many parts of the U.S., but is currently spreading in Ohio. Ingesting the plant or its seeds is deadly to humans and livestock.
