AFBF Economist: Proposed Rail Merger Raises Concerns For Farm Shippers

Agricultural groups warn that the deal could limit competition and raise transportation costs for farmers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — A proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern is drawing scrutiny from agricultural groups concerned about transportation competition and costs.

Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss how the merger could mean higher prices and fewer options for farmers.

In his interview with RFD News, Munch explained how consolidation in the rail industry could further limit options for moving grain, fertilizer, and other bulk commodities across rural America. Freight rail remains a critical link in the agricultural supply chain, especially for producers located far from waterways or major processing centers.

“Most agricultural shippers, including 95 percent of grain elevators, are already captive shippers, which means they have no other shipping alternatives,” Munch says. “ If transportation prices are increased, a shipper must accept the new price or they’re unable to move their product to market.”

U.S. railroads move tens of millions of tons of corn, soybeans, and wheat each year from the Midwest and Northern Plains to domestic processors and export terminals. For many regions, rail service is not simply the lowest-cost option but often the only practical one.

“They have to look closely at competition, service, and impacts on shippers, including farmers,” Munch continued, “Right now, we’re still very early in the process. The initial application from UP and NS was actually rejected earlier this year for being incomplete. The railroads plan to refile by the end of April.”

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could tighten transportation options for farmers.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Operationally, the proposed $85 billion merger would create the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad network in the United States. Supporters say a combined system could improve efficiency and reduce interchange delays, while critics argue the move would eliminate key gateways where shippers currently have limited carrier options.

Regionally, rail competition is already limited for agricultural shippers. Industry data show that roughly 95 percent of grain elevators are served by a single railroad, leaving producers dependent on a single carrier for most shipments. In those settings, transportation demand is highly inelastic, where farmers cannot easily reduce shipments or switch transportation modes when rates increase.

The Surface Transportation Board will review the proposal under its public-interest standard, with Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern expected to submit a revised merger application later this year. This follows the regulators’ rejection of an earlier filing as incomplete.

Related Stories
Purdue economist Dr. Joana Colussi discussed the U.S. and Brazil’s reliance on imported fertilizers and their impact on global food security amid rising input costs.
RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper joined us to discuss the proposed E15 amendment in the Farm Bill, industry reaction to the legislation, and the outlook for year-round E15 sales.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins plans a farm visit in Missouri, hinting at a possible fertilizer relief announcement on RFD-TV earlier this week. USDA also restructures its research infrastructure and launches new food-safety centers.
As part of this effort, USDA will establish a new National Food Safety Center (NFSC) in Urbandale, Iowa, which will serve as the primary hub for FSIS administrative, technical, and support operations.
Kansas row crop farmer Brad Keeler joins us to discuss drought conditions, planting decisions, input costs, and overall farmer sentiment in his region.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rising ethanol stocks and softer gasoline demand bear watching, but stronger blending activity and exports offered some support.
Corn export demand remains supportive, but weak pork and rice sales show uneven global demand trends.
Rising poultry supply is pressuring prices despite steady demand.
Brazil’s ethanol growth could shift the corn trade.
Tasting events in Ghana highlight potential for new export markets
Paul Neiffer outlines the requirements and when the change takes effect