AFBF Economist: Proposed Rail Merger Raises Concerns For Farm Shippers

Agricultural groups warn that the deal could limit competition and raise transportation costs for farmers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — A proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern is drawing scrutiny from agricultural groups concerned about transportation competition and costs.

Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss how the merger could mean higher prices and fewer options for farmers.

In his interview with RFD News, Munch explained how consolidation in the rail industry could further limit options for moving grain, fertilizer, and other bulk commodities across rural America. Freight rail remains a critical link in the agricultural supply chain, especially for producers located far from waterways or major processing centers.

“Most agricultural shippers, including 95 percent of grain elevators, are already captive shippers, which means they have no other shipping alternatives,” Munch says. “ If transportation prices are increased, a shipper must accept the new price or they’re unable to move their product to market.”

U.S. railroads move tens of millions of tons of corn, soybeans, and wheat each year from the Midwest and Northern Plains to domestic processors and export terminals. For many regions, rail service is not simply the lowest-cost option but often the only practical one.

“They have to look closely at competition, service, and impacts on shippers, including farmers,” Munch continued, “Right now, we’re still very early in the process. The initial application from UP and NS was actually rejected earlier this year for being incomplete. The railroads plan to refile by the end of April.”

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could tighten transportation options for farmers.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Operationally, the proposed $85 billion merger would create the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad network in the United States. Supporters say a combined system could improve efficiency and reduce interchange delays, while critics argue the move would eliminate key gateways where shippers currently have limited carrier options.

Regionally, rail competition is already limited for agricultural shippers. Industry data show that roughly 95 percent of grain elevators are served by a single railroad, leaving producers dependent on a single carrier for most shipments. In those settings, transportation demand is highly inelastic, where farmers cannot easily reduce shipments or switch transportation modes when rates increase.

The Surface Transportation Board will review the proposal under its public-interest standard, with Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern expected to submit a revised merger application later this year. This follows the regulators’ rejection of an earlier filing as incomplete.

Related Stories
The Ranger Road Fire in the Oklahoma Panhandle is now 65% contained after burning nearly 300,000 acres over the past week. Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance Agency discusses wildfire recovery, livestock insurance considerations, and the importance of preparedness for producers across the Southern Plains.
Ag leaders say President Donald Trump’s State of the Union is unlikely to spark major agriculture headlines, but ongoing tariff uncertainty and trade policy remain key concerns, as does the debate around glyphosate and the status of the next Farm Bill.
Cotton jassid, a invasive pest, is raising concerns for Southeast cotton growers as experts work to understand its impact this season.
RFD Farm Legal & Tax expert Roger McEowen shares guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, its impact on renewable energy and agriculture, and what producers should know moving forward.
Border closures tied to the threat of New World Screwworm continue to stall Mexican fed cattle imports, tightening U.S. feeder cattle supplies over time — triggering feedlot closures that hinder herd rebuilding efforts, threaten the beef supply chain, and shrink production while consumer prices stay elevated.
Brooks York of AgriSompo discusses projected prices and how farmers are adapting their crop insurance strategies as the price discovery period comes to a close.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rebuilding domestic textiles depends on automation and vertical integration, not tariffs or legacy manufacturing models.
Strong supplies and rising stocks point to continued price pressure unless demand accelerates.
Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
Policies aimed at ground beef prices may primarily reshape dairy incentives rather than deliver lasting consumer savings.