AFBF Economist: Proposed Rail Merger Raises Concerns For Farm Shippers

Agricultural groups warn that the deal could limit competition and raise transportation costs for farmers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — A proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern is drawing scrutiny from agricultural groups concerned about transportation competition and costs.

Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss how the merger could mean higher prices and fewer options for farmers.

In his interview with RFD News, Munch explained how consolidation in the rail industry could further limit options for moving grain, fertilizer, and other bulk commodities across rural America. Freight rail remains a critical link in the agricultural supply chain, especially for producers located far from waterways or major processing centers.

“Most agricultural shippers, including 95 percent of grain elevators, are already captive shippers, which means they have no other shipping alternatives,” Munch says. “ If transportation prices are increased, a shipper must accept the new price or they’re unable to move their product to market.”

U.S. railroads move tens of millions of tons of corn, soybeans, and wheat each year from the Midwest and Northern Plains to domestic processors and export terminals. For many regions, rail service is not simply the lowest-cost option but often the only practical one.

“They have to look closely at competition, service, and impacts on shippers, including farmers,” Munch continued, “Right now, we’re still very early in the process. The initial application from UP and NS was actually rejected earlier this year for being incomplete. The railroads plan to refile by the end of April.”

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could tighten transportation options for farmers.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Operationally, the proposed $85 billion merger would create the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad network in the United States. Supporters say a combined system could improve efficiency and reduce interchange delays, while critics argue the move would eliminate key gateways where shippers currently have limited carrier options.

Regionally, rail competition is already limited for agricultural shippers. Industry data show that roughly 95 percent of grain elevators are served by a single railroad, leaving producers dependent on a single carrier for most shipments. In those settings, transportation demand is highly inelastic, where farmers cannot easily reduce shipments or switch transportation modes when rates increase.

The Surface Transportation Board will review the proposal under its public-interest standard, with Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern expected to submit a revised merger application later this year. This follows the regulators’ rejection of an earlier filing as incomplete.

Related Stories
RFD NEWS correspondent Frank McCaffrey recently spoke with Dr. Mike Vickers, a South Texas rancher, who says illegal border crossings have dramatically declined in the last year.
New rule speeds leasing and permitting for federal oil and gas development
Auction manager and West Texas A&M University student Presley Graves joined us to discuss the growth of StockShowAuctions.com and its impact on youth in agriculture.
Texas Farm Bureau President Russell Boening joined us with the latest update on storm conditions and impacts across the state.
Mike Knotts with the Tennessee Electric Cooperative Association joined us with the latest on storm impacts, power restoration, and safety considerations following the ice storm.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us with his outlook on crop insurance and risk management following the recent winter storm that tore through most of the United States, including the Midwest.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rising federal debt is increasing pressure on Washington to limit spending, which could tighten future funding and delivery for agricultural programs.
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.