AFBF Economist: Proposed Rail Merger Raises Concerns For Farm Shippers

Agricultural groups warn that the deal could limit competition and raise transportation costs for farmers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — A proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern is drawing scrutiny from agricultural groups concerned about transportation competition and costs.

Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss how the merger could mean higher prices and fewer options for farmers.

In his interview with RFD News, Munch explained how consolidation in the rail industry could further limit options for moving grain, fertilizer, and other bulk commodities across rural America. Freight rail remains a critical link in the agricultural supply chain, especially for producers located far from waterways or major processing centers.

“Most agricultural shippers, including 95 percent of grain elevators, are already captive shippers, which means they have no other shipping alternatives,” Munch says. “ If transportation prices are increased, a shipper must accept the new price or they’re unable to move their product to market.”

U.S. railroads move tens of millions of tons of corn, soybeans, and wheat each year from the Midwest and Northern Plains to domestic processors and export terminals. For many regions, rail service is not simply the lowest-cost option but often the only practical one.

“They have to look closely at competition, service, and impacts on shippers, including farmers,” Munch continued, “Right now, we’re still very early in the process. The initial application from UP and NS was actually rejected earlier this year for being incomplete. The railroads plan to refile by the end of April.”

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could tighten transportation options for farmers.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Operationally, the proposed $85 billion merger would create the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad network in the United States. Supporters say a combined system could improve efficiency and reduce interchange delays, while critics argue the move would eliminate key gateways where shippers currently have limited carrier options.

Regionally, rail competition is already limited for agricultural shippers. Industry data show that roughly 95 percent of grain elevators are served by a single railroad, leaving producers dependent on a single carrier for most shipments. In those settings, transportation demand is highly inelastic, where farmers cannot easily reduce shipments or switch transportation modes when rates increase.

The Surface Transportation Board will review the proposal under its public-interest standard, with Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern expected to submit a revised merger application later this year. This follows the regulators’ rejection of an earlier filing as incomplete.

Related Stories
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold discusses lingering winter illnesses, shares strategies to boost immunity, and advises rural communities on when to seek medical care on Rural Health Matters.
Nick Westgerdes of the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers breaks down farmland values, rental rates, and sales trends in Illinois, while previewing the upcoming land values conference for 2026.
As National FFA Week continues, Ag Teacher Appreciation Day serves as a reminder of the lasting impact ag educators have on students, communities, and the future of American agriculture.
Analysts warn the closed U.S.-Mexico border is straining cattle supplies and packing capacity. StoneX and USDA data point to long-term industry shifts.
Michael Kelsey of the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association joined us with the latest on the Oklahoma wildfires, recovery efforts for ranchers, and the role agriculture leaders are playing in supporting rural communities.
USDA’s 2026 Food Price Outlook projects food prices rising 3.1%, with higher beef costs and falling egg prices shaping consumer trends.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Higher livestock prices reflect resilient demand, even as disease and herd shifts reshape 2026 supply expectations.
Bankruptcy filings reflect prolonged margin pressure, rising debt, and limited financial flexibility across farm country. Bigger operating loans are helping farms manage costs, but they also signal growing reliance on borrowed capital.
Lower freight costs helped sustain export demand amid a challenging pricing environment.
Producers across the country spent the week balancing spring planning with tight margins and uneven moisture outlooks. Input purchasing stayed cautious, while marketing and cash-flow decisions remained front and center for many operations.
Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
Federal assistance has helped, but the most recent row-crop losses remain on producers’ balance sheets.