NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Pork producers are tapping the brakes on expansion as margins improve, but uncertainty persists. Rabobank expects the global sow herd to decline in 2026, led by China’s plan to cut a million sows — roughly 2.5 percent of its base — trimming global numbers by about one percent.
With fewer new barns planned, the emphasis shifts to productivity, herd health, and carcass weights, while Brazil’s continued growth partially offsets China’s pullback. Trade is stabilizing but uneven.
Global pork shipments are up about three percent year-over-year through June, and Rabobank sees 2025 ending at or slightly above 2024 levels. Brazil is set to lift its market share from 12% to 15% on broader access and diversified buyers, while the US and the European Union (EU) navigate geopolitical friction with key markets, including China.
Animal disease remains the wild card. African Swine Fever (ASF) pressured Vietnam in 2025 — over 970 cases and more than 100,000 pigs lost — with fresh detections in Romania and Germany. Prices are firm where inventories tightened — EU up 10% YTD, North America 21% — while China’s prices slid 42% year over year on efficiency gains. Limited beef and chicken supplies support pork, but inflation may cause greater concerns in the near term.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Pork producers should prioritize herd health and productivity gains, hedge feed and hogs selectively, and watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s sow policy for price signals.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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