NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
The latest developments point to shifting export routes, higher congestion risk, and continuing cost pressure for grain, fertilizer, and energy shipments.
Cotton prices improved last week, but drought, storms, and uneven planting are keeping risk elevated.
National Corn Growers First VP Matt Frostic joins us to discuss their 62nd annual yield contest, the new short-season corn pilot class, and what farmers can expect as the season gets underway.
USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez says the cattle industry may be nearing a turning point that could gradually reshape supply, prices, and profitability in the years ahead.
HTS Commodities broker Lewis Williamson joins us to break down the latest USDA Crop Progress Report and how weather and global supply chain issues could influence planting conditions moving forward.
Purdue University’s Dr. Michael Langemeier joins us to break down the latest read on farmer sentiment in the April Ag Economy Barometer, and growing concerns about the impact of global conflict on farm inputs and income.
