NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
February 13, 2026 08:00 AM
·
AFBF Economist Samantha Ayoub discusses the latest data on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings and what the troubling trend signals for the farm economy. At the same time, bigger loans and higher rates are squeezing working capital and increasing financial risk.
February 12, 2026 04:26 PM
·
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
February 12, 2026 03:29 PM
·
Farm numbers still favor small operations, but production, resilience, and risk management are increasingly concentrated among fewer, larger farms.
February 12, 2026 12:16 PM
·
China’s reliance on imported soybeans remains entrenched, shaping global demand and trade leverage.
February 12, 2026 10:46 AM
·
Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.
February 12, 2026 10:00 AM
·
