NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Taxation expert, Roger McEowen, with the Washburn School of Law, joined us Monday to break down the changes and explain what producers should know.
September 29, 2025 01:57 PM
·
North Dakota Farmers Union (NDFU) President Mark Watne joined us Monday to share his perspective on the America First Trade Promotion Program and potential implications for producers.
September 29, 2025 01:38 PM
·
Duane Simpson, CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC), joined us in Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on the USDA’s plan and potential impact on producers.
September 29, 2025 12:17 PM
·
U.S. Farmers Navigate Harvest Pace, Costs, Policy Shifts
September 29, 2025 11:01 AM
·
Land values are increasing faster than farm income, making it more challenging for young and beginning farmers to expand, but supporting equity for current landowners.
September 29, 2025 09:58 AM
·
Beginning Farmers and Ranchers, Crop Insurance, and a Business Planning Complication
September 28, 2025 01:56 PM
·
