NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A massive U.S. corn harvest is colliding with only incremental demand gains, keeping prices heavy into winter.
In an analysis for Mississippi State University, Will Maples noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) September projection of 16.8 billion bushels—nearly 1.5 billion above the 2023 record—would hold even if yields are trimmed post-harvest.
Most use sits in three bins: feed, ethanol, and exports
Feed demand is pegged near 6.1 billion bushels, the highest since at least 2000, supported by lower prices and rising grain-consuming animal units (100.8 in 2025 vs. 99.9 last year). Ethanol grind is projected around 5.6 billion bushels (up from 5.4), with year-round E15 still a potential kicker.
Exports are the standout
Sales are tracking toward a record 3.0 billion bushels, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia—despite China’s absence since 2023/24 and a pause in weekly updates during the shutdown-scrapped October WASDE. Maples’ bottom line: strong use won’t outrun record supply, so price relief rests on final production and disciplined marketing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
National Land Realty’s Jeramy Stephens shares his outlook on farmland market trends, which remain under close watch as new federal assistance programs roll out — with experts analyzing potential impacts on land values, buying, and stability.
December 19, 2025 02:15 PM
·
Michelle Perez shares more about the American Farmland Trust’s resource to help farmers and producers plan soil health improvements.
December 19, 2025 02:03 PM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer outlines the key difference between previous ECAP payments and the Farm Bridge Assistance Program.
December 19, 2025 01:56 PM
·
Cattle markets are watching the Cattle-on-Feed Report for signs of tighter supplies, while USMEF warns limited China access is cutting producer profits.
December 19, 2025 01:05 PM
·
Weather-driven transportation disruptions can tighten logistics, affect basis levels, and delay grain movement during winter months.
December 19, 2025 12:55 PM
·
USDA Undersecretary Luke Lindberg outlines the Farm Bridge Assistance Program and responds to calls from lawmakers and ag leaders for more assistance and expanded trade opportunities for farmers.
December 19, 2025 12:46 PM
·
