NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A massive U.S. corn harvest is colliding with only incremental demand gains, keeping prices heavy into winter.
In an analysis for Mississippi State University, Will Maples noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) September projection of 16.8 billion bushels—nearly 1.5 billion above the 2023 record—would hold even if yields are trimmed post-harvest.
Most use sits in three bins: feed, ethanol, and exports
Feed demand is pegged near 6.1 billion bushels, the highest since at least 2000, supported by lower prices and rising grain-consuming animal units (100.8 in 2025 vs. 99.9 last year). Ethanol grind is projected around 5.6 billion bushels (up from 5.4), with year-round E15 still a potential kicker.
Exports are the standout
Sales are tracking toward a record 3.0 billion bushels, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia—despite China’s absence since 2023/24 and a pause in weekly updates during the shutdown-scrapped October WASDE. Maples’ bottom line: strong use won’t outrun record supply, so price relief rests on final production and disciplined marketing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Stable small business confidence supports rural economies, but lingering cost pressures and uncertainty continue to shape farm-country decision-making.
February 16, 2026 12:03 PM
·
Cotton acres slipping as competing crops gain ground.
February 16, 2026 12:00 PM
·
Ethanol output is improving, but weak domestic demand and export headwinds temper optimism about corn demand. Renewable Fuels Association President & CEO Geoff Cooper discusses the latest developments on Federal approval of year-round E15.
February 16, 2026 11:00 AM
·
Alliant Chairman of Agriculture and former U.S. Ag Secretary Mike Johanns explains the R&D Tax Credit, the recent Tax Court ruling, and ways livestock producers and agribusinesses can qualify.
February 13, 2026 01:51 PM
·
In the U.S. and Canada, reduced planted acres—not yield losses—led to a decline in potato production, while Mexico saw modest gains due to increased yields and harvested areas.
February 12, 2026 05:11 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney talks about the U.S. House’s latest vote to roll back tariffs on Canada and the ongoing discussions surrounding North American trade.
February 12, 2026 05:02 PM
·
