NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A massive U.S. corn harvest is colliding with only incremental demand gains, keeping prices heavy into winter.
In an analysis for Mississippi State University, Will Maples noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) September projection of 16.8 billion bushels—nearly 1.5 billion above the 2023 record—would hold even if yields are trimmed post-harvest.
Most use sits in three bins: feed, ethanol, and exports
Feed demand is pegged near 6.1 billion bushels, the highest since at least 2000, supported by lower prices and rising grain-consuming animal units (100.8 in 2025 vs. 99.9 last year). Ethanol grind is projected around 5.6 billion bushels (up from 5.4), with year-round E15 still a potential kicker.
Exports are the standout
Sales are tracking toward a record 3.0 billion bushels, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia—despite China’s absence since 2023/24 and a pause in weekly updates during the shutdown-scrapped October WASDE. Maples’ bottom line: strong use won’t outrun record supply, so price relief rests on final production and disciplined marketing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
September 30, 2025 12:25 PM
·
USDA and EPA officials aim to maintain America’s robust food supply while ensuring farmers have access to key resources and crop protection tools.
September 30, 2025 12:13 PM
·
Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses keep pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
September 30, 2025 10:45 AM
·
The total value of the U.S. potato crop was $4.60 billion in 2024, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.
September 29, 2025 06:00 PM
·
Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.
September 29, 2025 05:11 PM
·
The decline in production marks the second consecutive year of contraction in the U.S. turkey industry.
September 29, 2025 05:05 PM
·
The USDA noted that peanut edible utilization season-to-date is down 3% on the year, despite overall stocks increasing.
September 29, 2025 04:55 PM
·
“Those could’ve easily been our beans going over there. It goes to show that if that opportunity is there, China would be willing to buy.”
September 29, 2025 03:59 PM
·
We caught up with Karen Braun, Chief Market Analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, at the Women in Agribusiness to discuss the data behind commodity trading.
September 29, 2025 03:30 PM
·
