CHICAGO (RFD-TV) — Retail beef sales are holding steady, despite differences in consumer spending power. Analysts say that while some households are facing financial pressures, other consumers are helping to maintain overall demand.
Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc., notes this balance is likely to keep retail sales stable in the short term.
“We do have news that [retail sales] should be [stable],” he said. “We do have news that the lower third of consumers is struggling right now. However, we don’t really have that confirmed on the retail beef pushback yet. We’ve been speculating about this issue for two, if not three years. So far, the middle-class consumer and the higher-income consumer are making up for the concerns on the lower end here in the very short term.”
Nelson adds that cash cattle prices jumped $6 last week, but wholesale beef prices have dropped by $4 over the past few weeks, despite a rebound in cash cattle markets.
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
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“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
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Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
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Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
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Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
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