NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Retail beef prices have moved decisively higher over the past two years, and the pattern now points to a structural reset rather than temporary inflation noise. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show the all-fresh beef retail value rising from 784.9 cents per pound in December 2023 to 939.6 cents per pound by November 2025 — a gain of nearly 20 percent in less than two years. The pace of increase accelerated in 2025, signaling tightening fundamentals instead of lingering post-pandemic effects.
Seasonal behavior changed noticeably. In 2024, retail prices followed a familiar pattern — firming into summer, peaking near 820 cents per pound, then easing in the fall. In 2025, that ceiling disappeared. Prices set a higher plateau each quarter, strengthened sharply through summer, and continued climbing into the fall with no meaningful correction.
Year-over-year comparisons highlight the shift. By late summer and fall 2025, retail beef prices were running $1.00 to $1.30 per pound above the same months in 2024. Despite that increase, demand has not collapsed. Prices advanced steadily, suggesting consumers are absorbing higher costs by adjusting cuts or frequency rather than abandoning beef.
The consistency supports a tight-supply narrative tied to herd contraction, lower fed cattle availability, and limited retail discounting flexibility. If supplies remain constrained into 2026, meaningful retail price relief appears unlikely.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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