NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
October 17, 2025 04:59 PM
·
Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
October 17, 2025 04:54 PM
·
The Louisiana cotton crop is the smallest on record, but strong yields are a silver lining. LSU AgCenter’s Craig Gautreaux reports from northeast Louisiana.
October 17, 2025 04:48 PM
·
Soybean farmer and Arkansas Lt. Gov. Leslie Rutledge highlights why the U.S. trade standoff with China is especially critical for Arkansas producers.
October 17, 2025 04:07 PM
·
NEFB President Mark McHargue provides an update from the Husker State, where farmers are working hard to bring in one of the largest harvests in recent years.
October 17, 2025 04:06 PM
·
President Donald Trump says a deal is nearly done on lowering beef prices, but he has not released details.
October 17, 2025 11:31 AM
·
Large carryover stocks continue to put pressure on commodity prices, creating uncertainty for growers looking to market their grain.
October 16, 2025 04:20 PM
·
Peel says Mexico has a much greater capability to expand its beef industry than it did 20 or 30 years ago in terms of its feeding and packing infrastructure.
October 16, 2025 03:59 PM
·
The impacts of the government shutdown have reached commodity growers with crops to move, ag economists monitoring the harvest without key data reporting, and meat producers in need of new export markets.
October 16, 2025 01:03 PM
·
