NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
In a statement provided to RFD-TV News, a USDA spokesperson reiterated President Trump and the USDA’s commitment to farmers in difficult economic times.
October 16, 2025 11:57 AM
·
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
October 15, 2025 03:47 PM
·
China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
October 15, 2025 12:13 PM
·
Industry leaders say $11 billion in new investments could turn the tide as dairy producers face shrinking margins and growing uncertainty.
October 15, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Export Inspections In Bushels Show Mixed Momentum Patterns
October 15, 2025 11:38 AM
·
U.S. Farmers Face Shifting Harvest Pace, Basis, and Input Costs
October 15, 2025 10:47 AM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
·
Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
October 14, 2025 12:37 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
