NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
Record ethanol production, coupled with stronger demand, supports corn use despite tighter margins elsewhere.
December 18, 2025 02:32 PM
·
A new maritime biofuels coalition aims to position ocean shipping as a significant growth market for U.S. crops and waste-derived fuels.
December 17, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
December 16, 2025 01:37 PM
·
Despite China’s sharp drop in grain purchases this year, new USDA export data this week shows that even some buying activity from the trade giant still moves the markets.
December 16, 2025 12:20 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain supportive, but weaker soybean demand — especially from China — continues to pressure oilseed markets.
December 16, 2025 12:08 PM
·
Tim and Sharyn Abbott of the Music City Celebration Sale recap the weekend’s premier auction, which drew top dairy breeders and buyers to Nashville again this year from across North America.
December 16, 2025 11:54 AM
·
