NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
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