LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Milk prices are falling rapidly as expanding supplies overwhelm seasonal demand, creating growing financial pressure for U.S. dairy producers. According to Dr. David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the usual holiday demand boost for butter and cheese failed to materialize this fall as milk production surged to multi-decade highs.
Strong milk prices in 2024 and lower feed costs encouraged herd expansion, while added processing capacity supported higher output. High cattle prices also contributed, boosting dairy revenues through higher cull cow values and record prices for beef-on-dairy calves. By September 2025, the U.S. dairy herd reached 9.581 million head — the largest since the early 1990s — while milk production per cow continued to climb.
Higher cow numbers and improved productivity pushed October milk output up nearly 4 percent from a year earlier. As supplies built, dairy product prices slid sharply. Butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk prices all dropped well below last year, pulling Class III and Class IV milk prices lower.
Some herd contraction is expected, though strong cull and calf values may slow supply adjustments.
Low farmer shares reflect deep consolidation across the food chain, keeping producer returns thin even as retail food prices remain high.
November 25, 2025 03:02 PM
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Strong yields and higher cattle prices helped stabilize conditions, but weak crop prices and rising carryover debt remain major challenges for Eleventh District farmers.
November 25, 2025 02:55 PM
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November 25, 2025 02:20 PM
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Jake Charleston, with Specialty Risk Insurance, joins us now for an industry update and advice for cattle producers as they consider options for managing the risks of a murky market.
November 25, 2025 01:26 PM
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The National Milk Producers Federation will launch a new advocacy campaign to secure a final vote, urging House lawmakers to approve the bill as soon as they return from the Thanksgiving recess.
November 25, 2025 01:09 PM
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Tyson’s Nebraska plant closure and falling Cattle on Feed numbers send cattle markets tumbling. Analysts warn of tighter supplies, weak margins, and rising global competition.
November 25, 2025 12:05 PM
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One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
November 24, 2025 02:42 PM
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Leslee Oden, president of the National Turkey Federation, and Jay Jandrain, CEO of Butterball, joined us in the studio on Monday to discuss the history, significance, and expectations surrounding this year’s presidential turkey pardon.
November 24, 2025 12:04 PM
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According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.
November 24, 2025 11:47 AM
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