Seasonal Beef Production Recovery Could Temper Retail Prices

Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Beef supplies are beginning their seasonal recovery, offering possible relief from recent retail price highs without signaling a larger cattle supply. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock economist Dr. David Anderson says production remains below last year.

Weekly beef production averaged 6.1 percent below 2025 levels from January through April. In May, the year-over-year decline narrowed to 3.8 percent as slaughter moved above early-spring lows.

Steer slaughter has edged higher, while heifer slaughter has increased slightly. Beef cow culling remains below last year but has increased from early-year levels. Heavy-fed cattle weights continue supporting total beef output.

Seasonally tight spring supplies met grilling-season demand, helping push retail beef prices higher. More cattle on feed and continued heavy carcass weights could increase summer production from spring lows and slow further price gains.

The improvement does not mean beef production will exceed last year or that consumers will see lower year-over-year prices. Limited cattle inventories remain the broader issue, keeping cattle values supported while beef remains expensive.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Jake Charleston from Specialty Risk Insurance Agency recapped an Oklahoma auctioneer contest and recent industry events, showing how stakeholder feedback helps insurers gauge market conditions and risk management needs.
Cattle-on-Feed is down on the year in the USDA’s April report, with lower placements and marketings signaling tighter feedlot activity.
Steven Snow with the U.S. Small Business Administration joined us to discuss tax relief for rural Americans and the long-term benefits of new provisions impacting farmers and small businesses.
Rising global supplies may cap soybean price strength, while sorghum prices hinge heavily on China’s export demand.
Strong ethanol output supports corn demand despite export weakness.
Strong crush margins — now at multi-year highs — are encouraging processors to expand production.