LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A seemingly modest decline in the U.S. calf crop is setting the stage for tighter cattle supplies and rising competition through 2026 and into 2027. According to Hyrum Egbert, author of The Big Bad Packer newsletter, the two-percent drop reported in the latest USDA cattle inventory equates to roughly 512,000 fewer calves moving through the system.
That reduction is far from trivial. Egbert notes it represents about one full week of U.S. fed cattle production once typical feeding patterns are applied. While the impact will not hit all segments at once, it will compound steadily over time.
Feedyards are expected to feel the strain first. Calf-fed placements are likely to tighten from the first quarter through the third quarter of 2026, followed by pressure on yearling placements from mid-2026 into early 2027. As a result, keeping pens full becomes more difficult, and competition for available cattle intensifies.
Packing plants will feel the effects later. Thinner showlists and tighter fed supplies are projected to emerge in the second half of 2026 and extend well into 2027, keeping leverage tilted toward cattle owners.
Egbert describes the dynamic as a slow-moving supply vice — tightening quarter by quarter rather than delivering a single headline shock.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
December 23, 2025 12:12 PM
·
Higher yields are cushioning lower acreage, but reduced production could support firmer potato prices into 2026.
December 23, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Producers across the country balanced winter weather disruptions, shifting export demand, and tightening margins as year-end decisions come into focus.
December 22, 2025 03:50 PM
·
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.
December 22, 2025 03:19 PM
·
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
December 22, 2025 02:45 PM
·
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.
December 22, 2025 02:05 PM
·
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC) are praising the passage of a bill to delist gray wolves as an endangered species by the U.S. House last week.
December 22, 2025 01:23 PM
·
Recent USDA export sales data show China has been active in the U.S. market, but analysts tell RFD-TV News that the timing is a key clue.
December 22, 2025 12:45 PM
·
Tight feeder supplies and lower placements indicate continued support for the cattle market, with regional impacts heightened in Texas by reduced feeder imports.
December 22, 2025 10:10 AM
·
