LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A seemingly modest decline in the U.S. calf crop is setting the stage for tighter cattle supplies and rising competition through 2026 and into 2027. According to Hyrum Egbert, author of The Big Bad Packer newsletter, the two-percent drop reported in the latest USDA cattle inventory equates to roughly 512,000 fewer calves moving through the system.
That reduction is far from trivial. Egbert notes it represents about one full week of U.S. fed cattle production once typical feeding patterns are applied. While the impact will not hit all segments at once, it will compound steadily over time.
Feedyards are expected to feel the strain first. Calf-fed placements are likely to tighten from the first quarter through the third quarter of 2026, followed by pressure on yearling placements from mid-2026 into early 2027. As a result, keeping pens full becomes more difficult, and competition for available cattle intensifies.
Packing plants will feel the effects later. Thinner showlists and tighter fed supplies are projected to emerge in the second half of 2026 and extend well into 2027, keeping leverage tilted toward cattle owners.
Egbert describes the dynamic as a slow-moving supply vice — tightening quarter by quarter rather than delivering a single headline shock.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Alan Bjerga, with the National Milk Producers Federation, joined us on Tuesday from Wisconsin with his Dairy Industry Outlook.
September 30, 2025 01:27 PM
·
Chris McGovern from Connected Nation joined us Tuesday to break down the findings and discuss their implications for rural America.
September 30, 2025 01:12 PM
·
The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
September 30, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses keep pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
September 30, 2025 10:45 AM
·
The USDA’s August Cold Storage report shows shifting stock levels across major dairy, meat, and poultry products.
September 29, 2025 06:21 PM
·
The total value of the U.S. potato crop was $4.60 billion in 2024, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.
September 29, 2025 06:00 PM
·
Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.
September 29, 2025 05:11 PM
·
The decline in production marks the second consecutive year of contraction in the U.S. turkey industry.
September 29, 2025 05:05 PM
·
The USDA noted that peanut edible utilization season-to-date is down 3% on the year, despite overall stocks increasing.
September 29, 2025 04:55 PM
·
