LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A seemingly modest decline in the U.S. calf crop is setting the stage for tighter cattle supplies and rising competition through 2026 and into 2027. According to Hyrum Egbert, author of The Big Bad Packer newsletter, the two-percent drop reported in the latest USDA cattle inventory equates to roughly 512,000 fewer calves moving through the system.
That reduction is far from trivial. Egbert notes it represents about one full week of U.S. fed cattle production once typical feeding patterns are applied. While the impact will not hit all segments at once, it will compound steadily over time.
Feedyards are expected to feel the strain first. Calf-fed placements are likely to tighten from the first quarter through the third quarter of 2026, followed by pressure on yearling placements from mid-2026 into early 2027. As a result, keeping pens full becomes more difficult, and competition for available cattle intensifies.
Packing plants will feel the effects later. Thinner showlists and tighter fed supplies are projected to emerge in the second half of 2026 and extend well into 2027, keeping leverage tilted toward cattle owners.
Egbert describes the dynamic as a slow-moving supply vice — tightening quarter by quarter rather than delivering a single headline shock.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
China’s beef policy risk stems from domestic volatility, making export demand inherently unstable. Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance offers his perspective on cattle markets, risk management, and producer sentiment.
January 13, 2026 02:13 PM
·
USDA flash corn sales, Cattle on Feed and Inventory reports, and beef packer antitrust concerns dominate January agricultural market news.
January 13, 2026 01:53 PM
·
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
January 13, 2026 01:02 PM
·
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.
January 13, 2026 12:53 PM
·
Food prices increased in December, but not as much as expected, according to the latest Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
January 13, 2026 12:46 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
January 13, 2026 12:34 PM
·
Structural efficiency supports cattle prices and resilience — breaking it risks higher costs and greater volatility.
January 13, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Strong pork demand and improving beef exports outside China support protein markets despite ongoing trade barriers.
January 13, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.
January 12, 2026 03:51 PM
·
