NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may ease fertilizer supply concerns, but it does not resolve deeper issues in the global market. Analysts at StoneX say that while a ceasefire allows for potential movement, actual vessel traffic remains limited and uncertainty remains high.
Dozens of fertilizer vessels remain staged in the Persian Gulf. StoneX analysis shows that roughly 931,000 metric tons of urea, along with phosphate, ammonia, and sulfur, are awaiting movement. However, vessel owners remain cautious, and crossings have not increased meaningfully.
Even if traffic resumes, oil shipments are expected to take priority. That could delay fertilizer movement further and extend supply tightness. Clearing the backlog alone could take weeks, assuming the ceasefire holds and conditions stabilize.
Markets reacted quickly. NOLA urea barge prices dropped 7 percent to 10 percent on light trading, reflecting expectations of improved supply. But broader supply challenges remain unresolved.
Farmers are navigating ongoing market volatility as spring planting ramps up, with mixed weather patterns and shifting input prices playing a key role in decision-making.
Brooks York with Agrisompo joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report with insight on how producers can manage risk in the current environment.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, York discusses how volatility, while often emotional, can present opportunities when paired with sound marketing strategies, and outlines approaches that work alongside crop insurance, along with what producers should consider as they make marketing decisions this season.
York also shares his biggest concerns about balancing marketing plans with crop insurance coverage, especially in a year filled with uncertainty.
With attention turning to the April WASDE report, York explains what producers might expect and how they can navigate decisions around what is typically a less volatile report.
Corn growers are increasingly worried about fertilizer availability, not just for this season, but for the year ahead. A new survey from the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) shows that for every one farmer concerned about fertilizer supplies this year, two are more worried about availability in 2027.
NCGA leaders have been especially vocal on the issue. President Jed Bower recently published an op-ed sharply criticizing the policy and the companies supporting it.
“We have little power to make an immediate impact on what is happening in the Middle East. But we should be able to reverse the actions that were put in motion by corporate leaders whose resort vacations, mansions, and yachts are financed on the backs of America’s farmers.”
The organization argues that keeping the duties in place restricts supply and drives up costs for U.S. producers at a time when input prices are already elevated.
To ease those concerns, several agricultural groups are pushing to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports. The tariffs were first implemented in 2020 at the request of The Mosaic Company, which argued that an influx of cheaper foreign fertilizers was harming the domestic market and working to provide growers with best practices for maximizing fertilizer ROI.
“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field,” The Mosaic Company said in an official statement to RFD NEWS. “Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high‑quality, reliable products produced here at home.”
NCGA leaders are expected to discuss the survey results and policy push in more detail when they join us next Tuesday on the Market Day Report.
