While soybean export numbers might not look impressive at first glance, a commodity broker says the outlook is better than it appears.
Sales are tracking above the five-year average, which is an encouraging sign after several years of struggles in the soybean market. Greg McBride, Director of Brokerage for Allendale, notes that, even with ongoing trade tensions and tariff concerns, U.S. soybeans are still moving steadily.
“It still does leave us saying that we’re probably somewhere near where the final number is gonna be, but overall it’s not a major concern. As we talk about tariffs a lot lately, it also is telling us that we’re not getting some of these countries coming in and making major cancellations, and when it comes to the tariffs, especially on the soybean side, I think that’s where the biggest concern is when or if China would come in and retaliate with the cancellations on from their side.”
With sales near the expected targets, McBride believes there is no immediate need for USDA to make major adjustments to export forecasts.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
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Taiwan’s pledge to expand imports strengthens export prospects for U.S. row crops, livestock products, and specialty commodities, while the USDA’s broader trade push seeks to diversify farm markets globally.
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“American soybean farmers—who are already reeling from your sweeping tariffs—deserve better.”
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