“Surprised they aren’t higher": Economists are caught off guard by the lack of fertilizer price action

Fertilizer costs are also top of mind during geopolitical turmoil.

Josh Linville with StoneX says the numbers are telling an interesting story right now.

“Truthfully, I have been surprised prices haven’t been higher. What other things have been keeping a lid on these fertilizer prices from going higher than where they are today is lower grain prices. Obviously, farmers everywhere are talking about the fact that grain prices are not great, they’re not attractive, and so that is keeping the lid because I think the fertilizer industry knows the farmers just can’t buy these values, certainly not ahead of next spring.”

Fertilizer prices have been relatively steady over the last few days. Analysts with DTN found no significant moves last week, with anhydrous falling in price over the last month. Seven of the eight major types are more expensive than a year ago, with urea holding 25 percent above 2024. Potash, on the other hand, is lower in price, falling around seven percent on the year.

Related Stories
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains how conflict in the Middle East is affecting spring planting as farmers navigate the evolving situation.
The Mosaic Company’s Keith Byerly shares smart input investment strategies, fertilizer considerations, and ways growers can manage risk heading into the 2026 growing season.
Energy risks could reshape global ag trade flows.
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertilizer shipments, raising costs and creating uncertainty for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and the potential impact on agriculture as farmers navigate ongoing global uncertainty.
Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
With China halting U.S. soybean purchases and talks tied to broader strategic issues, growers face renewed export uncertainty.
Talks highlight the widening role of agriculture in U.S.–India trade policy, though neither side appears ready for major concessions before tariff issues and oil imports are resolved.
Southern farms are deepening online engagement for cost savings and market access, while higher-cost precision technologies face renewed scrutiny amid tight budgets.
Global trade teams and summit discussions highlight expanding opportunities for U.S. corn and ethanol exports as nations explore renewable fuel options and reduced-carbon energy pathways.