WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Export uncertainty is tightening the screws on cash flow and local basis, with fresh China–U.S. tensions and court action amplifying bid volatility for soybeans and products. Beijing’s stepped-up rare-earth export curbs add another lever in the trade standoff.
At the same time, Washington has announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 — a headline that tends to widen day-to-day bid swings in row-crop country. The Supreme Court has also fast-tracked the review of presidential tariff authorities, keeping policy risk elevated throughout the harvest period.
India is a partial bright spot. New Delhi is signaling bigger U.S. energy and LNG purchases alongside talks aiming to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 — even after August tariff hikes of up to 50% on Indian goods. Those purchases could open incremental lanes for U.S. oilseeds, feed ingredients, and ethanol co-products as negotiators work toward a first-phase deal.
Closer to home, Argentina’s policy flips have whipsawed offer sheets. A short-lived suspension of agro-export taxes — and rapid reinstatement after sales surged — briefly improved Argentine competitiveness into shared destinations, pressuring Gulf basis, barges, and crush margins. Merchandisers are keeping port and timing optionality as South American flows reshape meal and corn competition.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD Markets Specialist
A massive rail merger could significantly impact North American agriculture and trade flows.
November 19, 2025 12:46 PM
·
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
November 19, 2025 12:31 PM
·
Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.
November 18, 2025 01:24 PM
·
With feed supplies running tight, producers can tap into some creative options, according to University of Pennsylvania Veterinarian and Professor Dr. Joe Bender.
November 18, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
November 18, 2025 01:02 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities shares an update on post-WASDE grain movement, with corn leading export momentum, soybeans steady, and wheat and sorghum continuing to move selectively.
November 18, 2025 12:20 PM
·
China still has a long way to go before it meets its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year.
November 18, 2025 11:23 AM
·
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
·
