WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Export uncertainty is tightening the screws on cash flow and local basis, with fresh China–U.S. tensions and court action amplifying bid volatility for soybeans and products. Beijing’s stepped-up rare-earth export curbs add another lever in the trade standoff.
At the same time, Washington has announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 — a headline that tends to widen day-to-day bid swings in row-crop country. The Supreme Court has also fast-tracked the review of presidential tariff authorities, keeping policy risk elevated throughout the harvest period.
India is a partial bright spot. New Delhi is signaling bigger U.S. energy and LNG purchases alongside talks aiming to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 — even after August tariff hikes of up to 50% on Indian goods. Those purchases could open incremental lanes for U.S. oilseeds, feed ingredients, and ethanol co-products as negotiators work toward a first-phase deal.
Closer to home, Argentina’s policy flips have whipsawed offer sheets. A short-lived suspension of agro-export taxes — and rapid reinstatement after sales surged — briefly improved Argentine competitiveness into shared destinations, pressuring Gulf basis, barges, and crush margins. Merchandisers are keeping port and timing optionality as South American flows reshape meal and corn competition.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD Markets Specialist
Market analyst Kevin Huddleston said news of trade deals could rebound cotton prices in late fall, and producers need to be ready to strike deals.
October 07, 2025 02:05 PM
·
Lewis Williamson, from HTS Commodities, joined us to share insights on the farm economy from producers in the field.
October 07, 2025 12:47 PM
·
Despite tariffs having a less significant impact on exports, corn producers struggle with tariff-related increases on inputs, which complicates their bottom line.
October 06, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Jack Daniel’s will end its Cow Feeder Program, which served around 100 livestock operations near the distillery, and redirect spent grains to its anaerobic digester.
October 06, 2025 12:33 PM
·
October 06, 2025 12:11 PM
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
October 06, 2025 11:56 AM
·
“A government shutdown impacts all Americans and has serious consequences, including for farmers. It just adds additional uncertainty, disrupts critical services.”
October 06, 2025 11:23 AM
·
Agricultural exports continue to be a key contributor to rural employment. However, rural businesses still struggle to fill numerous job openings.
October 06, 2025 10:46 AM
·
Dave Kestel, a farmer from Will County and member of the Illinois Farm Bureau, joins us to share a boots-on-the-ground update on the 2025 corn harvest.
October 03, 2025 02:30 PM
·
