Tariffs and Cartel Violence Pose Challenges for U.S.-Mexico Agricultural Trade

U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade faces uncertainty in 2026 as tariffs and cartel violence threaten farmers and ranchers. Congressman Henry Cuellar and Texas leaders weigh in on impacts and risks.

post_206.jpeg

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Meets with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins in the National Palace in Mexico City. (Nov. 3, 2025)

Gobierno de Mexico

SOUTH TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — So far, 2026 has been a year of challenges for agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico. Among the major issues are President Donald Trump’s talk of new tariffs following a February 20 Supreme Court decision that struck down his emergency tariffs, and concerns over recent reports of cartel violence in Mexico.

U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX) says there is no doubt the tariffs have affected trade.

“The tariffs, if you talk to the ranchers and the farmers, they certainly have been impacted,” Rep. Cuellar said. “And as you know, the Supreme Court declared those tariffs unconstitutional, and then he dug in and went into another section, which allows them to put tariffs for 150 days.”

Cuellar is openly opposed to the tariffs, citing the impact on prices: “They raise the prices of goods, and that’s why the affordability issue is so important.”

Republican Texas State Representative Janie Lopez offered a statement on the issue:

“Anything that is USMCA-compliant is exempt from the new 15 percent tariffs,” Lopez said. “If the item is not USMCA-compliant, it would have a tariff, essentially a trade enforcement tool. And, I should remind you, it was the threat of tariffs that made Mexico decide to make the water payments it owed.”

Beyond tariffs, cartel activity in Mexico has raised concerns about potential disruptions to agricultural trade. Now, Rep. Lopez also told RFD NEWS that the cartels can do damage to trade by having road blockages in Mexico on the other side of that bridge, and also by the suspension of USDA inspections. This raises concerns about the extent of the damage they could cause.

Despite these concerns, Rep. Cuellar said he is not currently worried about cartels blocking agricultural shipments.

“Well, right now, we haven’t seen the drug cartels affect the movement of traffic. As you know, they focus on one thing, and that is drugs, human trafficking, smuggling...that’s what they’re focusing on,” Cuellar said. “They haven’t, as far as we know, really, purposely focused on the supply chains, you know, that will affect the U.S.”

Still, he says U.S. agricultural interests should remain vigilant regarding cartel activity.

“I want to commend the Mexican government because, you know, they lost 25 soldiers,” Cuellar said. “It’s hard when you lose military soldiers as they did, but they did go after the number one campaign. And, of course, now we’ve got to see how this is going to [develop] — who’s going to take over and what sort of operation — but anytime the top person, you know, leaves for whatever reason or dies, then there’s always a struggle to see who’s going to take over.”

For now, those engaged in agricultural trade with Mexico will have to wait and see how the situation develops at the top of the nation’s cartels.

Frank McCaffrey reporting for RFD NEWS.

Related Stories
Lawmakers and experts react to the Administration’s long-awaited announcement of “bridge” aid to stabilize farms and offset 2025 losses until expanded safety-net programs begin in 2026.
Lewie Pugh with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) discusses the gap in truck driver education programs and how it impacts road safety and supply chain economics.
$11 billion will go to row-crop farmers immediately, with $1 billion set aside for specialty crops.
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
Georgia has regained its HPAI-free status after a swift response to October’s detection. Commissioner Tyler Harper urges producers to stay vigilant and maintain biosecurity.
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.

RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey covers news from Texas, in the US-Mexico border region. He has provided in-depth coverage of immigration, the 2021 Texas freeze, the arrival of the New World screwworm, and Mexico’s water debt owed under a 1944 treaty.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A rescheduled WASDE, China’s soybean squeeze, barge bottlenecks, and premium beef demand all collide this week — with cash decisions, basis, and risk plans on the line.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.