Tariffs and Cartel Violence Pose Challenges for U.S.-Mexico Agricultural Trade

U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade faces uncertainty in 2026 as tariffs and cartel violence threaten farmers and ranchers. Congressman Henry Cuellar and Texas leaders weigh in on impacts and risks.

post_206.jpeg

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Meets with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins in the National Palace in Mexico City. (Nov. 3, 2025)

Gobierno de Mexico

SOUTH TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — So far, 2026 has been a year of challenges for agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico. Among the major issues are President Donald Trump’s talk of new tariffs following a February 20 Supreme Court decision that struck down his emergency tariffs, and concerns over recent reports of cartel violence in Mexico.

U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX) says there is no doubt the tariffs have affected trade.

“The tariffs, if you talk to the ranchers and the farmers, they certainly have been impacted,” Rep. Cuellar said. “And as you know, the Supreme Court declared those tariffs unconstitutional, and then he dug in and went into another section, which allows them to put tariffs for 150 days.”

Cuellar is openly opposed to the tariffs, citing the impact on prices: “They raise the prices of goods, and that’s why the affordability issue is so important.”

Republican Texas State Representative Janie Lopez offered a statement on the issue:

“Anything that is USMCA-compliant is exempt from the new 15 percent tariffs,” Lopez said. “If the item is not USMCA-compliant, it would have a tariff, essentially a trade enforcement tool. And, I should remind you, it was the threat of tariffs that made Mexico decide to make the water payments it owed.”

Beyond tariffs, cartel activity in Mexico has raised concerns about potential disruptions to agricultural trade. Now, Rep. Lopez also told RFD NEWS that the cartels can do damage to trade by having road blockages in Mexico on the other side of that bridge, and also by the suspension of USDA inspections. This raises concerns about the extent of the damage they could cause.

Despite these concerns, Rep. Cuellar said he is not currently worried about cartels blocking agricultural shipments.

“Well, right now, we haven’t seen the drug cartels affect the movement of traffic. As you know, they focus on one thing, and that is drugs, human trafficking, smuggling...that’s what they’re focusing on,” Cuellar said. “They haven’t, as far as we know, really, purposely focused on the supply chains, you know, that will affect the U.S.”

Still, he says U.S. agricultural interests should remain vigilant regarding cartel activity.

“I want to commend the Mexican government because, you know, they lost 25 soldiers,” Cuellar said. “It’s hard when you lose military soldiers as they did, but they did go after the number one campaign. And, of course, now we’ve got to see how this is going to [develop] — who’s going to take over and what sort of operation — but anytime the top person, you know, leaves for whatever reason or dies, then there’s always a struggle to see who’s going to take over.”

For now, those engaged in agricultural trade with Mexico will have to wait and see how the situation develops at the top of the nation’s cartels.

Frank McCaffrey reporting for RFD NEWS.

Related Stories
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) discusses the USDA’s new cattle plan, ethanol policy, and the broader challenges ahead for rural America.
Bioethanol continues to gain ground as the bridge fuel connecting agriculture, aviation, and maritime industries in the global shift toward lower-carbon energy.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is investing now to make markets less volatile for ranchers over the long term and more affordable for consumers, according to a press release.

RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey covers news from Texas, in the US-Mexico border region. He has provided in-depth coverage of immigration, the 2021 Texas freeze, the arrival of the New World screwworm, and Mexico’s water debt owed under a 1944 treaty.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Fewer placements and historically low marketings point to tighter cattle supplies ahead, with Nebraska and Kansas gaining ground as Texas feedlots face supply pressure and the threat of New World Screwworm.
Industry-wide participation in SHIP enhances biosecurity and fosters global trust in U.S. pork, says swine health expert, Dr. Christine Mainquist-Whigham.
A new study by the National Grains and Feeds Association found that their industry generates $401.7 billion in economic output and supports over 1.16 million jobs nationwide.
National Education Center for Ag Safety Director Dan Neenan joins us to discuss grain bin safety and the steps producers can take to prevent tragedies.
What is it like working cattle with an outbreak of New World Screwworm so close to home? Wayne Cockrell, with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, joined us on Wednesday to discuss.
Argentina hopes to boost demand, but critics see the move as a blow to American farmers.